Monday, December 15, 2014

Game Changer: New DOJ study on college sexual assault says it's not one-in-five, it's one-in-fifty-two

The new DOJ study shows that the real number isn't 1 in 5, it's 1-in-52.  It isn't 20 percent of all college women, it's 1.9 percent. See herehere and here.

Even one sexual assault is too many, but this news undermines, in a dramatic fashion, a movement that has become increasingly dependent on a campus rape epidemic to define itself. Many of us knew the one-in-five stat was concocted from whole cloth.

Those who would try to discredit the new study would do well not to fall back on the one-in-five. The lead author of the one-in-five study, Christopher Krebs, recently told Emily Yoffe that it is not a representative statistic. The Washington Post didn't buy into the one-in-five stat. Even the New York Times has called it "flawed" and noted that other studies that came to similar conclusions "have their own shortcomings." In an NPR report, RAINN head Scott Berkowitz backed away from the one-in--five.

Unfortunately, the 1 in 5 stat has become the basis for draconian government policies marked by a hostility to due process for college men accused of sex offenses. It is amusing that the same folks who tout the "one-in-five" are the first to insist that Prof. Kanin's false rape study is invalid. (For the record, Kanin's study is not representative, either -- Kanin himself said so -- and should not be relied on to establish policy any more than the one-in-five.)

The invocation of the one-in-five stat was never about the truth -- only the most deluded of purveyors of rape culture really believed there is a 20 percent chance that any of our daughters would be subjected to one of the worst crimes imaginable merely by attending college. It was always about ramming a political agenda down the throats of college administrators. The rape culturalists succeeded. Our colleges now have sexual assault policies designed not so much to actually reduce sexual assault as to institutionalize the notion that masculinity is inherently evil and that women are perpetual victims of men.  It's good old-fashioned '70s gender get-evenism.

According to the new one-in-52 study, when it comes to sexual assault, colleges are much, much safer for young women than are non-college settings. Everyone already knew that -- except the sexual grievance industry, which has a tremendous financial interest in manufacturing a campus rape problem of catastrophic proportions. It is ironic that even now, our lawmakers pouring tremendous monetary resources into colleges to combat this "crisis," and they're passing laws that will infringe on the rights of college men in order to make colleges even safer for college women. Note that the lawmakers ignore non-college women, who, according to the new study, are in relatively greater danger.

The new study suffers from a fundamental impediments as the "one-in-five" that serve to over-inflate the number of sexual assault. It credits as true every assertion of sexual assault when, in fact, we know that when sexual assault claims are actually reported, investigated, and tested against competing claims and evidence, more than half fall into a gray area where its impossible to say if it was actually a sexual assault. When we know that most of all sexual assaults actually reported can't be credited as actual sexual assaults, why should every sexual assault in a survey be so credited?  And please note, it's not that droves of women lie about rape. The National Institute of Justice has said: "Men and women may have different perceptions of the same incident." Is it really so shocking that there might be two sides to the story, and that neither party is lying? And, yes, sometimes people do exaggerate, lie, and claim their behavior is better than it really is in surveys. A recent scientific study shows that  women lie on surveys to minimize their consensual sexual encounters, likely because of societal double-standards that find it acceptable for men, but not women, to engage in sexual activity. Should it surprise anyone, then, that some women report in surveys that they've been subjected to unwanted sex even when the sex was consensual in order to be in sync with societal expectations about gender roles? Is that in any sense controversial?

Coming on the heels of the Rolling Stone gang rape debacle, this new study will be perceived as a massive setback for the sexual grievance industry. That is as it should be because this is what happens when you shoot without regard for the truth or the innocents struck by your scattershot fire. These folks have ruthlessly used the one-in-five stat to roll back the rights of college men, and they have no one to blame but themselves if their agenda suffers.

RAINN has discredited the "rape culture" meme, and recent events strongly suggest that it is time for our friends in the feminist community to follow suit if their movement is to survive.